COHEN-REA-LERMAN STUDY9

In a study prepared for the U.S. Department of Labor, Cohen, Rea, and Lerman were interested in examining the labor-force participation of various categories of labor as a function of several socioeconomic-demographic variables. In all their regressions, the dependent variable was a dummy, taking a value of 1 if a person is in the labor force, 0 if he or she is not. In Table 15.3 we reproduce one of their several dummy-dependent variable regressions.

Before interpreting the results, note these features: The preceding regression was estimated by using the OLS. To correct for heteroscedasticity, the authors used the two-step procedure outlined previously in some of their regressions but found that the standard errors of the estimates thus obtained did not differ materially from those obtained without correction for heteroscedasticity. Perhaps this result is due to the sheer size of the sample, namely, about 25,000. Because of this large sample size, the estimated t values may be tested for statistical significance by the usual OLS procedure even though the error term takes dichotomous values. The estimated R2 of 0.175 may seem rather low, but in view of the large sample size, this R2 is still significant on the basis of the Ftest given in Section 8.5. Finally, notice how the authors have blended quantitative and qualitative variables and how they have taken into account the interaction effects.

Turning to the interpretations of the findings, we see that each slope coefficient gives the rate of change in the conditional probability of the event occurring for a given unit change in the value of the explanatory variable. For instance, the coefficient of -0.2753 attached to the variable "age 65 and over'' means, holding all other factors constant, the probability of participation in the labor force by women in this age group is smaller by about 27 percent (as compared with the base category of women aged 22 to 54). By the same token, the coefficient of 0.3061 attached to the variable "16 or more years of schooling'' means, holding all other factors constant, the probability of women with this much education participating in the labor force is higher by about 31 percent (as compared with women with less than 5 years of schooling, the base category).

Now consider the interaction term marital status and age. The table shows that the labor-force participation probability is higher by some 29 percent for those women who were never married (as compared with the base category) and smaller by about 28 percent for those women who are 65 and over (again in relation to the base category). But the probability of participation of women who were never married and are 65 or over is smaller by about 20 percent as compared with the base category. This implies that women aged 65 and over but never married are likely to participate in the labor force more than those who are aged 65 and over and are married or fall into the "other" category.

Following this procedure, the reader can easily interpret the rest of the coefficients given in Table 15.3. From the given information, it is easy to obtain the estimates of the conditional probabilities of labor-force participation of the various categories. Thus, if we want to find the probability for married women (other), aged 22 to 54, with 12 to 15 years of schooling, with an unemployment rate of 2.5 to 3.4 percent, employment change of 3.5 to 6.49 percent, relative employment opportunities of 74 percent and over, and with FILOW of $7500 and over, we obtain

0.4368 + 0.1523 + 0.2231 - 0.0213 + 0.0301 + 0.0571 - 0.2455 = 0.6326

In other words, the probability of labor-force participation by women with the preceding characteristics is estimated to be about 63 percent.

(Continued)

9Malcolm S. Cohen, Samuel A. Rea, Jr., and Robert I. Lerman, A Micro Model of Labor Supply, BLS Staff Paper 4, U.S. Department of Labor, 1970.

EXAMPLE 15.1 (Continued)

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