Example 143

GROWTH OF U.S. POPULATION, 1970-1999

The table in exercise 14.8 gives you data on total U.S. population for the period 1970-1999. A logistic growth model of the following type is often used to measure the growth of a population:

where Y = population; t = time, measured chronologically; and the fa's are the parameters. Notice an interesting thing about this model. Although there are only two variables, population and time, there are three unknowns, which shows that in a NLRM there can be more parameters than variables.

Sample: 1970-1999 Included observations: 30 Convergence achieved after one iteration

Coefficient Std. error t statistic p value

ß1 1432.738 508.0113 2.8202 0.0089

R2 = 0.9997 d = 0.3345 The estimated model, therefore, is:

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