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where A is the mean number of occurrences. Although this population mean is unknown, it can be estimated by the sample mean .66. It is then possible, by substituting .66 for A in (11.2.1), to estimate the probability for any number of occurrences under the null hypothesis that the population distribution is Poisson. For example, the probability of two occurrences is

Similarly, the probabilities for zero and one occurrence can be found, so the probability of three or more occurrences is

These probabilities are shown in the second row of Table 11.6.

TABLE 11.5 Occurrences of the word may in 262 blocks of text in The Federalist Papers

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