See: Statistical Abstract of the United States (

Holt's exponential smoothing model uses a smoothed estimate of the trend component as well as the level component to produce forecasts. In the two-parameter exponential smoothing forecast equation, the current smoothed level is added to a linear trend to forecast future values. The updated value of the smoothed level is computed as the weighted average of new data and the best estimate of the new level based on old data. The Holt method combines old and new estimates of the one-period change of the smoothed level, thus defining the current linear or local trend.

three-parameter (Winters) exponential smoothing

Method for forecasting seasonally adjusted growth

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