In this book we have introduced a set of indicators that, on the basis of both in-sample and out-of-sample tests, appear to be useful for gauging vulnerability to currency and banking crises in emerging economies. The indicators are not precise enough to make fine distinctions in crisis vulnerability across countries and over time, but they can draw some distinctions between the most and least vulnerable groups of countries and recognize large increases in the vulnerability of a given country over time. As such, they have the potential to add value as a ''first screen'' of vulnerability and as a supplementary tool to other types of analysis of crisis vulnerability. As suggested in chapter 5, we think the indicators would have been useful in anticipating the Asian currency and banking crises.
In this chapter, we summarize our key results. Furthermore, in thinking about future evaluation of such leading indicators of crises, two obvious questions arise: would publication of the indicators erode their usefulness in an early warning system, and are there policy implications associated with the better performing indicators? We discuss each of these questions in turn.
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